Summary:
This study examines the role played by economies of scale in the economic viability of alternative fuel trucks such as battery-electric (BET) and fuel cell electric trucks (FCET). Focusing on the role of infrastructure deployment, the research evaluates how recharging infrastructure capacities and fleet sizes impact the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) of alternative fuel trucks from 2025 to 2040, and hence the competitiveness of the different alternatives for the decarbonization of heavy-duty transport.
The findings show that, on average, BETs are likely to dominate the short and medium term, particularly in urban and regional logistics. FCETs can also become competitive in long-haul operations. However, the competitiveness of both alternatives depends to a large extent on the economies of scale of recharging infrastructures, with FCET requiring large fleets or shared stations in order to reduce refueling costs.
The paper discusses the implications of these findings for European green infrastructure policies, in particular AFIR, which must be aligned with these economic realities in order to be successful.
Spanish layman's summary:
Este estudio muestra que los camiones eléctricos serán rentables en diversos segmentos, mientras que los camiones de hidrógeno podrían volverse competitivos en largas distancias. Sin embargo, los costes de la infraestructura de hidrógeno son clave, lo que sugiere que las políticas deben apoyar estaciones de repostaje compartidas para descarbonizar eficazmente el transporte pesado.
English layman's summary:
This study shows that electric trucks will be cost-effective across segments, while hydrogen trucks may become competitive for long distances. However, hydrogen infrastructure costs play a key role, suggesting policies must support shared refueling stations to effectively decarbonize heavy transport.
Keywords: Decarbonization of transport, Heavy-duty, Alternative Fuel Trucks, Total Cost of Ownership (TCO), Infrastructure Policy
Registration date: 26/03/2025
IIT-25-071WP
